Social networks: key players in the 2024 European elections? In a constantly evolving political landscape, the growing influence of social networks raises many questions about their potential impact on the results of the upcoming European elections. Analysis of the stakes and the opportunities offered by these digital platforms at the heart of the upcoming electoral campaign.
Limited impact on electoral behaviors
The phenomenon of political communication on social networks is no longer a novelty. Jordan Bardella sharing a glass of wine on TikTok, Gabriel Attal posing with his dog on BeReal, or Emmanuel Macron and Lula recreating a scene from La La Land on Instagram, these images aim to attract and charm voters. However, an analysis conducted by the Sciences Po research center, in collaboration with the OpinonWay institute for Cevipof, reveals that this tactic may not have the expected effect.
According to this survey conducted among 8,679 people in four European countries, neither electoral behavior nor levels of trust in democracies or institutions are fundamentally altered by intensive use of social networks.
The relationship between social media use and political trust
In France, the study shows that 74% of occasional social media users trust the police, compared to 65% of intensive users. Contrary to some beliefs, social networks are not simply tools of dissent. Luc Rouban, the author of the survey, emphasizes that “trust in politics increases as one uses social networks more.” Thus, the use of social networks does not seem to be a determining factor in eroding trust in institutions.
Proximity to extremes and participation rates
The survey highlights that intensive social media users tend to be closer to political extremes. For example, 19% of these users express proximity to the National Rally (RN) compared to 14% for occasional users. For La France Insoumise (LFI), these proportions are 14% and 3%, respectively. In Germany, intensive users also show a stronger affinity with the AfD.
However, the intensity of social media use does not necessarily change intentions to vote for radical parties, but rather tends to promote abstentionism. In fact, 36% of intensive users abstain from voting, compared to only 22% among occasional users.
The specificities of each social network
Each social network presents a specific sociology that influences the political reactions of its members. Users of X (formerly Twitter) and LinkedIn, for example, show increased interest and greater trust in politics. These platforms also have a high proportion of higher education graduates (56% on X, 67% on LinkedIn) and “downgraded” individuals (44% and 60% respectively).
It is important to note that exclusive use of a single social network is rare, which complicates attributing a specific political effect to one network. The survey specifies that it is unlikely to see a construction of political identity occur solely through a social network.
Young people and the future of political communication strategies
An interesting question remains to be studied: the impact of social media on those under 18, an age group that is very active online but still not eligible to vote. The influence of political communication strategies on this young generation could prove crucial for future elections. These young people, when they reach voting age, may represent a decisive turning point in electoral mobilization via social networks.
In conclusion, while social networks have become essential tools for political communication, their impact on electoral behaviors and trust in institutions remains limited. The upcoming European elections in 2024 will be an ideal observation ground to determine if this trend continues.
