The presidential pre-campaign of Jordan Bardella, a rising figure of the National Rally (RN), is unfolding under the dual weight of his personal ambitions and the persistent influence of Marine Le Pen, his predecessor. While the resolution of certain legal matters could determine Marine Le Pen’s political future, Bardella faces challenges that could hinder his ascent. This duality, rendering their dynamic complex, hints at divergences of visions within the far-right party which, despite its electoral successes, seems to be going through a period of internal turbulence.
A Facade Dynamic
This Friday, May 1st, Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen meet in Mâcon to celebrate the national holiday, an event intended to display an image of unity before the voters. This rally now replaces the traditional Parisian parade in homage to Joan of Arc. However, this gathering is more than just a celebration. It is a key moment for the RN, planned in a particularly difficult context, just three months before a decision by the Paris Court of Appeal that could affect Marine Le Pen’s political trajectory.
A Sword of Damocles
Starting July 7th, the judges will have to render their verdict on the parliamentary assistants’ case, a matter that could condemn Marine Le Pen to disqualification. If that were the case, it would jeopardize her political future in light of the 2027 presidential election. This uncertainty weighs heavily on the pre-campaign, and Bardella must navigate it while considering the risks associated with a leadership whose future is uncertain, all while cultivating his own image.
Internal Tensions on Key Issues
The differing positions of the two leaders on economic policy issues, such as taxation of superprofits, highlight a latent tension. Recently, Jordan Bardella has adopted a cautious tone towards the exceptional taxation of profits made by oil companies, arguing that taxation is not a priority in a country already subjected to high fiscal pressure. In contrast, Marine Le Pen has vigorously advocated for such a measure, calling it “social justice.” This dissonance only fuels the perception of disagreements within the RN.
Apparent Fragilities within the RN
Bardella’s pre-campaign is thus marked by internal divergences that could disrupt the cohesion of the party. Discussions surrounding pension reform, once a cornerstone of the RN’s program, also reflect a change in tone. The RN spokesperson, Thomas Ménagé, revealed a certain instability regarding the party’s position on this issue, emphasizing that opinions could evolve rapidly. This demonstrates a fragility that adds to the curve already included in the national scrutiny.
A Pressured Communication
Other obstacles loom on the horizon regarding communication. Interpersonal relationships between the factions led by Bardella and Le Pen are often fraught, masking tensions and rivalries. Indeed, communication missteps, such as a recent clumsy officialization of Bardella’s personal relationship with a figure of nobility, highlight the delicacy of the image to project. A world meant to represent the people of France finds itself in a delicate situation, which could have negative consequences on public perception.
Imminence of Crucial Arbitrations
In an attempt to resolve internal tensions and disagreements, the RN is allowing ten months before important arbitrations that could redefine its priorities. This will coincide with judicial decisions affecting Marine Le Pen and upcoming elections. In this climate of uncertainty, it becomes essential for Bardella to strengthen his position while accommodating Le Pen’s. The challenge is to build a united image while managing the widening divergences of opinion.
A Popularity to Test
Despite a still high popularity rating, recent trends in polls highlight that the RN faces a credibility deficit. As Bardella emerges as a new figure in the political landscape, his ascent may encounter deeper issues than personal and organizational tensions within the RN. Electoral momentum may be patient, but a solid foundation for a viable project must be assured for the RN to maintain its position in the French political game.
